Red Sox roster projection: Where Josh Winckowski, Ceddanne Rafaela and others fit (2024)

The last Red Sox roster projection we did came out just before camp opened. A lot has changed since then.

With just over 10 days remaining before the season begins, we figured it would be a good time to take a look at where things stand with the roster and who might make the Opening Day cut come March 28 in Seattle.

Starters (5): Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, Cooper Criswell

Injured list (1): Lucas Giolito

Giolito’s season is over before it began after undergoing an internal bracing procedure in his right elbow last week. The surgery stabilizes the elbow ligament and is a less invasive procedure than a full Tommy John surgery, which replaces the ligament altogether. Consequently, Giolito is aiming to be ready for the start of 2025, rather than midway through the 2025 season which would have been a more normal recovery with Tommy John surgery. Rich Hill had a similar surgery in 2019, perhaps the first pitcher to have that type of surgery, and told WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford he started throwing after four months and felt ready to pitch after six or seven months.

With that said, the rotation will do without Giolito this season. Bello, Pivetta and Crawford have a lock on the first three spots in the rotation. Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Criswell, who had been competing for the final spot, are now competing for the final two spots in the rotation. Red Sox manager Alex Cora announced on Sunday that Josh Winckowski, who’d been in that group as well, will officially move to the bullpen.

Houck has been the most effective of that group, though is coming off a bit of a tough start on Sunday, needing 76 pitches for 3 2/3 innings. He hadn’t started a game since his first turn but had been coming in for multi-inning stints following other starters. That’s not necessarily an indication of a future bullpen role, more so a result of stretching out so many guys and trying to keep them on a five-man rotation. Still the overall numbers have been good and he could win a rotation spot come next week. Criswell initially wasn’t as much on the radar compared to the rest of the group but since Giolito’s injury, the Red Sox have been discussing his potential more and more.

“It would be unfair to say we overlooked him, but we just weren’t as familiar with him given that he wasn’t with us,” chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said of Criswell. “I think what has been impressive and what we knew we were getting is an elite strike-thrower. I think there were some questions as to whether or not we can help boost the stuff and I think in pretty short order, it’s ticked up a little bit while maintaining the ability to shape pitches very, very well and pounding the strike zone. So I think he’s definitely put himself in the conversation.”

Bullpen (8): Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Josh Winckowski, Garrett Whitlock, Justin Slaten, Brennan Bernardino, Isaiah Campbell, Greg Weissert

Injured list (2): Liam Hendriks, Bryan Mata

Winckowski has been pegged for the bullpen and I’m predicting here that he’s joined by Whitlock. Both have been stretched out this spring so it seems likely they’ll remain in multi-inning roles. Jansen had been sidelined at the start of camp with a lat strain, but threw in his first Grapefruit League game on Friday. It was a bit of a rough outing and he’s scheduled to pitch in a game again on Monday. With just over a week left in spring training, Cora seems to think Jansen will still be ready for Opening Day, but any minor setbacks or soreness might alter that plan. Jansen has said in the past he usually is ready after five or six appearances so it’s still possible he squeezes that in by the middle of next week but it’ll be a quick ramp-up. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising if he misses the first week or so of games. Meanwhile, Martin had been ramping up slowly and dealt with a cramp last week during a live batting practice, but has since returned to the mound. Cora, again, suggested Martin will be ready for Seattle, but he, too, is one to keep an eye on.

As for the rest of the bullpen, Rule 5 draftee Slaten has to make the team or be returned to the Texas Rangers, and by all accounts, he’s had a strong spring and is a near lock for a spot. At the outset of camp, Cora had said Bernardino wasn’t necessarily a lock in the bullpen but did have a leg up given his season last year. He has yet to give up an earned run this spring so it seems likely he’ll maintain his spot, though he does have options and could be sent to Triple A if the Red Sox want to give fellow lefty Jorge Benitez a shot. Benitez has looked good and Cora has mentioned him on more than one occasion. Cora recruited Benitez after watching him pitch for his former Puerto Rican winter ball team, Caguas. Benitez isn’t on the 40-man roster, though, after signing a minor-league deal this winter.

The Red Sox still have to move Giolito the the 60-day injured list so there are spots that will open up. If the Red Sox prefer just one lefty and go with Bernardino, Benitez could begin the year in Triple A. Yet it wouldn’t be surprising to see Benitez in Boston as soon as a need arises. For the last two spots, Campbell and Weissert, both right-handers, have looked good and Cora has mentioned them often as strong bullpen candidates. Righty Justin Hagenman, acquired in the trade for Kiké Hernández last summer, has also had a nice spring and could be on a short list of bullpen call-ups from Triple A. He’s not on the 40-man roster yet either, though.

Infield (6): Triston Casas, Enmanuel Valdez, Trevor Story, Rafael Devers, Pablo Reyes, Bobby Dalbec

Injured list (1): Vaughn Grissom

Grissom has been dealing with a groin strain and Cora suggested late April as a realistic timetable for his return. In Grissom’s absence, Cora initially pegged Valdez as the second baseman with Reyes seeing time at second too. Reyes does not have options left so to preserve depth, it’s likely he earns a bench spot. But Cora also recently suggested Ceddanne Rafaela will see time at second and shortstop as well over the final week of camp. Rafaela initially came up as a middle infielder before transitioning to the outfield. Still, Cora has said multiple times he prefers Rafaela in center.

For the rest of the infield, first base, third base and shortstop are all locks, barring injuries, so that leaves the last infield utility man spot up for grabs. The Red Sox signed C.J. Cron to a minor-league deal in the middle of camp as a power right-handed bat to give Dalbec some competition. He’s only played in a handful of games, though, so it might come down to the wire on a decision regarding Cron vs. Dalbec. Dalbec has had a decent spring, but ensuring that translates to the regular season has been an issue the past few seasons. He does have more positional versatility than Cron with the ability to play first and third as well as some outfield while Cron is limited to first. Of note, Dalbec does have a minor-league option left whereas Cron could opt out of his minor-league deal if he sees a big-league opportunity elsewhere at the end of camp. It’s possible if the Red Sox see enough from Cron, he makes the cut and Dalbec is optioned. If Cron doesn’t produce over the first month, the Red Sox could designate him and call up Dalbec.

Outfield (5): Tyler O’Neill, Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela

Injured list (1): Rob Refsnyder

The unfortunate injury for Refsnyder, a broken toe on a foul ball last week, seems to open the door wider for Rafaela to make the team. Refsndyer’s veteran right-handed bat and outfield versatility gave him an edge on an outfield spot most of camp, but now it seems more and more likely Rafaela will make the Opening Day roster. Meanwhile, Adam Duvall signed a one-year, $3 million deal with the Braves late last week. If the Red Sox, even down a righty hitter in losing Refsnyder, still weren’t willing to add Duvall on a deal at that low amount, it suggests they’re all-in on Rafaela. Cora has been high on Abreu all spring despite some uneven numbers at the plate, as he’s been encouraged by Abreu’s walk rate. Yoshida, as we’ve noted before, is likely to see most of his time at designated hitter but will also mix into left field. Duran figures to share time in left and center with O’Neill able to play all three outfield spots.

Catchers (2): Connor Wong, Reese McGuire

Not much has changed here and Wong and McGuire are expected to be paired behind the plate this season. Like last year, Wong is expected to see a majority of the starts.

(Photo of Rafaela hitting a home run: Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images)

Jen McCaffrey is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Boston Red Sox. Prior to joining The Athletic, the Syracuse graduate spent four years as a Red Sox reporter for MassLive.com and three years as a sports reporter for the Cape Cod Times. Follow Jen on Twitter @jcmccaffrey